WASHINGTON, D.C. (E&E News) — The federal workforce will continue to face turmoil this year, though efforts to reduce their ranks are expected to roll out in more surgical fashion.
The Trump administration in 2025 shuttered whole agencies, terminated government employees and encouraged others to leave voluntarily, which, eventually, drove out tens of thousands. Now, new regulations governing federal hiring and firing and targeted cost cutting loom for those who remain.
“It seems like the initial shock and awe of last year is somewhat over,” Justin Chen, president of American Federation of Government Employees Council 238, EPA’s largest union, told POLITICO’s E&E News. “The rate for which they’re aggressively pursuing people to resign from agencies or trying to RIF [reduction in force] people seems to a certain extent calmed down, but the damage has already been done.”
Further, Capitol Hill is making progress on appropriations legislation for the rest of this fiscal year. Several of those spending bills reject deep spending cuts proposed by President Donald Trump’s first budget request of his second term. Several of those spending bills reject deep spending cuts proposed by President Donald Trump’s first budget request of his second term.
Ron Sanders, a fellow of the National Academy of Public Administration and a former Senior Executive Service member for more than 20 years, said government workers will be caught in the middle between the administration — particularly the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management — and Congress. At stake will be the size and capacity of the federal workforce.
Those employees are “going to be facing uncertainty in the middle of that tug-of-war,” said Sanders, who held top-level human resources positions at the IRS, Defense Department and the intelligence community.
The President’s Management Agenda, released last month, doubles down on the administration’s reshaping of the government, pledging to offload federal buildings, end “woke” programs and downsize staffing.
“Eliminate jobs in non-essential, non-statutory functions” and “strategically hire only for essential jobs,” said the memo, signed by OMB Director Russ Vought and OMB Deputy Director for Management Eric Ueland.
Asked about his 2026 outlook for the federal workforce, OPM Director Scott Kupor said in a statement, “As we look ahead, our focus is on continuing to build a federal workforce that is more efficient, accountable, and mission-driven.”
His agency is drafting rules and guidance so the federal government can bring on new talent and reward top performers.
“2026 will be about moving forward with that modernization — strengthening how government works, how it measures success, and how it supports a high-performing workforce,” Kupor said.
Don Kettl, professor emeritus and former dean of the University of Maryland School of Public Policy, said firings of federal employees will continue but the administration will have to hire as well to ensure the government meets its mission.
“It will be a year for phase two,” Kettl said. “Not as high on rhetoric of explosive action, but a steady, targeted effort on a number of fronts that will continue the administration’s efforts to remake — and shrink — the workforce.”
Shutdown showdown
But first, federal employees may have to grapple with another government shutdown. At the end of January, some agencies will run out of money, resulting in them closing and furloughing staff until funding is restored.
Government workers already dealt with the longest-ever shutdown last year. That triggered threats from the administration over backpay and layoffs for federal employees. Meanwhile, furloughs never came for employees who were working on Trump’s
priorities.
Observers are optimistic there won’t be a repeat episode in 2026 as lawmakers advance minibus packages to fund agencies, such as EPA as well as the Department of Energy and the Interior.
“I don’t feel the same appetite from Congress for a shutdown this time,” said Jenny Mattingley, vice president for public policy and stakeholder engagement at the Partnership for Public Service. “My gut tells me that they likely will have most of the
funding in place.”
Nevertheless, the federal workforce is much smaller. More than 300,000 have left government service since Trump’s inauguration last year, according to OPM. In turn, energy and environmental agencies report their staffing has dropped substantially.
Congress passed a ban on RIFs to reopen the government but that probation will end Jan. 30. Nevertheless, Stephanie Rapp-Tully, a partner at law firm Tully Rinckey, is not expecting massive layoffs or resignations for the workforce this year.
“If anything, there would be minor ones because of the amount of employees that have been reduced,” said Rapp-Tully, an expert in federal employment law. “I think that it should slow down a bit, but it’s clear where they’re hiring, what agencies they’re still looking to reduce.”
